天美麻豆

Yogi007 wrote:

It's probably a good time to share some views on business opportunities in Vietnam.

There's some very significant events about to unfold soon and in the future that is currently worrying a lot of investors.

1. You've got Donald Trump being sworn in next week as US President.
His views on the TPP (Trans pacific partnership) could have a negative impact for the economy here.

2. The rise of the machines, Robotics with the coming of the Fourth industrial revolution will take a lot of the manufacturing away from Vietnam.聽 This will happen a lot faster than people think.聽 Vietnam is mainly used by the multi nationals for low cost, unskilled & highly repetitious assembly work .聽 Analyst have already predicted that Vietnam will be one of the worst countries affected by Robotics in the region.

3. There's a property bubble looming, financed by banks that are already overweight with NPL toxic debt from the 2010 slump.聽 The credit rating is shite ,BBB- and that's not helping.聽 聽

4. About 250 nautical miles east of where I'm sitting China has built military installations in the South China Sea that is currently a "hot spot" and there are already threats of war between China and the US.聽 聽How Donald Trump handles that is scary.馃槵聽 If things do escalate that will have a devastating impact on exports and overall stability in the region.

There's a few factors to consider before bringing your investment capital into Vietnam if your a stand alone operator.

You've got to remember that the "smart money " operators here don't use their OWN money.聽 聽They use shareholders money,聽 Government money , banks money and private equity schmuck money.聽 聽

You'll find the multi nationals, infrastructure contractors, developers etc all use the above as sources of funding capital.聽 聽If the venture fails....they just walk away.聽 Those guys in the suits won't have their own money at risk.

The next 12 months at least is going to be interesting.聽 聽

They say in times like this, keep your powder dry & in safe haven locations..

Definitely shouldn't under estimate how bad a skirmish between China and Vietnam would be for the Vietnamese economy, however small or short. Vietnamese are very nationalistic, often the dumb kind of nationalism to the detriment of their own economy. Like when China moved that oil rig and the flag wavers who are usually not allowed to protest in public started burning down factories. Too dumb to distinguish between Singaporean, Taiwanese, Japanese and Chinese ones. I suspect that for many, it was more a rare opportunity to protest and vent many unrelated things.... like shit working conditions, labour rights and the fact that many think the VCP secretly sold the islands to the CCP in Chengdu for massive bribes.

Last time there was a border conflict, the Sino-Vietnamese聽 (Hoa) fled en masse. They were a large portion of the middle class (meaning they could afford to flee) and like in most south east asian countries, disproportionately overrepresented in business.

phikachu wrote:

...and the fact that many think the VCP secretly sold the islands to the CCP in Chengdu for massive bribes.

I imagine a secret sale is just a rumor but one thing I have read, that you will never hear in Vietnam, is that there is a hole in Vietnam's case for the Paracel's (Hoang聽 Sa) as seen in international law.聽 It seems that the islands are south of the 54th parallel and for geopolitical reasons, the Hanoi government did not object when China took them from the Republic of Vietnam (South) by force in 1974.聽 As Hanoi was strategically dependent on China at the time they failed to object in any international forum.聽 This is seen as severely weakening the Vietnamese claim.聽

The Philippines won it's case in the Hague but enforcement is another matter.聽 Vietnam may be reluctant to bring a legal case to the international court because of the failure to even rhetorically defend the islands in 1974.聽 Both proximity and tradition should favor Vietnam, but precedents like this can have a major effect on court judgements.

Yogi007 wrote:

It's probably a good time to share some views on business opportunities in Vietnam.

There's some very significant events about to unfold soon and in the future that is currently worrying a lot of investors.

Interesting to see such a serious post from you Yogi.聽 Something must have got to you.聽

Yogi007 wrote:

1. You've got Donald Trump being sworn in next week as US President.
His views on the TPP (Trans pacific partnership) could have a negative impact for the economy here.

It happened officially yesterday (23 Jan 17 in the US.)聽 Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the US from the treaty.聽 Also the way it is written it dies without the US not only for practical reasons but legally, because over 85% of all signatories by GDP are needed and the US is well over 15% of the total GDP.

Yogi007 wrote:

2. The rise of the machines, Robotics with the coming of the Fourth industrial revolution will take a lot of the manufacturing away from Vietnam.聽 This will happen a lot faster than people think.聽 Vietnam is mainly used by the multi nationals for low cost, unskilled & highly repetitious assembly work .聽 Analyst have already predicted that Vietnam will be one of the worst countries affected by Robotics in the region.

I have searched for the link and can't find it, but I read exactly this in the NY Times recently.聽 You can bet that NIke is looking for a way to automate that sneaker line.聽 Foxconn in China already has a robotic plant working for Apple that eliminates half the labor.聽 Samsung in Vietnam can't be far behind.

Yogi007 wrote:

3. There's a property bubble looming, financed by banks that are already overweight with NPL toxic debt from the 2010 slump.聽 The credit rating is shite ,BBB- and that's not helping.

All the real estate agents who lurk on this site are still urging you to buy because as they assure you, real estate can only go up.聽 聽聽 聽When the bubble crashes, they will be offering to sell your depreciated assets so they can make their cut in both directions.
***

gianglegiang wrote:

How a topic about Global business has been turned out a politics topic?

It's politics as it effects economics.

THIGV wrote:

gianglegiang wrote:

How a topic about Global business has been turned out a politics topic?

It's politics as it effects economics.

I don't think Trump bashing is relevant here, as you would usually say...

THIGV wrote:

gianglegiang wrote:

How a topic about Global business has been turned out a politics topic?

It's politics as it effects economics.

As murky as politics can be , that is the one thing that is worrying the " smart money " in this region at the moment.聽 聽The smart ones buy on fact and sell on rumour.聽 聽 There are investors preferring to sit on the sidelines with a wait and see approach.

The stuff we read in the newspapers here is state controlled,聽 sugar coated drivel.聽 Some of the figures they put out are "rubbery" and the banks real NPL position is much worse than anyone will admit to.聽 There's not one bank director here that's game enough to put his hand up and say his loan book is loaded with shitty Lending .聽 聽He'd be out of a job and into prison if he did.聽

China recently has finally admitted to fudging production figures in some provinces by up to 25% ,,,,no one wants to admit things are slowing .

There's massive personal debt here, people virtually survive by robbing Phoung to pay Khanh. It's crazy.

Sooner or later the chickens will come home to roost,, and Yogi reckons between now and 2020 there's gunna be some feathers flying.聽 聽

聽 聽Rex Tillerson made some very scary comments last week about China and the Islands being militarised.
Those islands are just over the horizon form where Yogi has his morning swim.聽 NIce eh.

Ah well, I suppose we can all sleep well at night knowing Donald, Rex and Steve Bannon are taking care of the situation.馃槅

So ....anyone looking at bringing business investment capital into VN may want to listen, watch and wait. Could be time well spent.

colinoscapee wrote:

I don't think Trump bashing is relevant here, as you would usually say...

Did you open my links?聽 One summarizes an economic report by Credit Suisse specifically on Vietnam, and the other discusses how China will move on Asian trade.聽 The first doesn't even mention Trump and the second does so only in the context of the collapse of the TPP.聽 I don't see them as Trump bashing but relevant to the economic outlook in Vietnam.

gianglegiang wrote:

How a topic about Global business has been turned out a politics topic?

Politics as in what effects any given politician will have on expat life is perfectly acceptable but wild party political points are no so. Politicians often get feelings high as we saw with Duterte and now
Trump.

Whilst the effects of their policies are a valid expat topic, I love/hate Trump comments are not.

I've sent a couple of posts off for review, one pro Trump, and one anti. Perhaps I could request no more are posted.
On the same subject, insults are equally unwelcome, even changing a past president's name in order to show disdain.

colinoscapee wrote:

Geez, looks like you forgot what you wrote

Yes I did and thought you were referring to my later post.聽 At any rate, we will all need to wait and see what happens in the East Sea as it is called in Vietnam.聽 As Yogi mentioned, it may come sooner than later. His more humorous writing style does tend to soften the blow.

Yogi007 wrote:

It's probably a good time to share some views on business opportunities in Vietnam..

Vietnam is in an interesting position at the moment, but in a Chinese curse mentioned by Kennedy sort of way.
Vietnam has disputes with a country it has no way to beat economically, politically or militarily but has the misfortune of support from outside sources that could end up starting a conflict that would otherwise not happen.
Add the new leadership of one country, and that means a very likely shift in business away from America to other major economic powers that have less protective trading policies.
It really doesn't matter if you love or hate Trump, his stated aim of protectionist trade means businessmen all over the world are going to be taking a very close look at their business model and possible alternatives if trade tariffs are imposed on products entering the US.

As for how that changes possible new businesses in Vietnam, especially ones concerned with international trade, watch this space and see what unfolds.

THIGV wrote:

gianglegiang wrote:

How a topic about Global business has been turned out a politics topic?

It's politics as it effects economics.

Especially in a country where the Government policy was once to centrally plan the entire economy and ban all private trade.

THIGV wrote:

phikachu wrote:

...and the fact that many think the VCP secretly sold the islands to the CCP in Chengdu for massive bribes.

I imagine a secret sale is just a rumor but one thing I have read, that you will never hear in Vietnam, is that there is a hole in Vietnam's case for the Paracel's (Hoang聽 Sa) as seen in international law.聽 It seems that the islands are south of the 54th parallel and for geopolitical reasons, the Hanoi government did not object when China took them from the Republic of Vietnam (South) by force in 1974.聽 As Hanoi was strategically dependent on China at the time they failed to object in any international forum.聽 This is seen as severely weakening the Vietnamese claim.聽

The Philippines won it's case in the Hague but enforcement is another matter.聽 Vietnam may be reluctant to bring a legal case to the international court because of the failure to even rhetorically defend the islands in 1974.聽 Both proximity and tradition should favor Vietnam, but precedents like this can have a major effect on court judgements.

They gave it away for guns and ammo. Then when oil and gas was discovered they reneged for better terms...their own pockets full of RMB.